近日，浙江大学中国农村发展研究院茅锐教授与合作者在《Pacific-Basin Finance Journal》和《China & World Economy》发表论文，揭示疫情对农产品贸易和跨境资本流动的影响，2篇文章分别于7月20日和21日在线发表。其中，茅锐教授与卡特幸梦莹博士及浙江工业大学张晋华等发表在金融学领域知名国际期刊PBFJ上的文章，题目是“归家之路：新冠疫情对中国境外投资机构交易行为的影响（The way back home: Trading behaviours of foreign institutional investors in China amid the COVID-19 pandemic）”。茅锐教授与卡特陈志钢教授、贾梓祎博士发表在经济学领域知名国际期刊CWE上的文章，题目是“疫情冲击下进口管制措施对农产品出口的影响：对中国的启示（Impacts of import refusals on agricultural exports during pandemics: Implications for China）”。
PBFJ文章简介 现有研究对境外投资机构在目的国的市场不确定性增强时如何调整交易行为存在不同看法。一方面，与本国投资者相比，境外投资者拥有的信息往往不充分，这可能造成它们对投资目的地市场不确定性的变化过度反应；另一方面，就发展中国家的金融市场而言，境外投资机构的交易行为相对本国投资者而言又较为成熟，这可能使它们的交易行为较少受到市场不确定性变化的扰动。本文旨在利用新冠疫情冲击事件，考察中国市场上境外投资机构交易行为的变化。文章基于时间序列模型分析发现，境外投资机构的交易行为同时受投资目的地（即中国）和投资机构来源地（即母国）疫情暴发程度的影响，但总体而言后者的作用更大。疫情对境外投资机构交易行为的影响在不同行业间存在明显差异。同时，文章还发现在疫情冲击下，境外投资机构调整了资产的流动性组合，呈现了"流动性迁移（flight-to-liquidity）"的特征。 PBFJ文章摘要 By using foreign institutional investors' daily trading data on 958 firms in China and COVID-19 infection data of six countries, this paper aims to investigate how the pandemic has influenced foreign institutional investors' trading behaviours during the first half year of 2020. In addition to domestic returns and foreign returns, ‘pull factors’ of COVID-19 pandemic in host country and ‘push factors’ of COVID-19 pandemic in home country were used to explain net foreign inflows. We find that ‘push factors’ of COVID-19 in home country are dominant in explaining the reduction of net foreign inflows in five out of 11 sectors, and ‘pull factors’ of domestic returns are dominant in explaining net foreign inflows in most sectors. The price impact of net foreign flows differs across sectors as well. A strong negative correlation between net foreign outflows and same-day return could be identified in the Financials sector. On the flip side, positive correlation between net foreign inflows and same-day return could be identified in seven other sectors. Finally, a pattern of flight-to-liquidity was discovered, as foreign institutional investors strategically sell illiquid stocks to conserve liquidity when market uncertainty is heightened. PBFJ文章链接： https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101618 CWE文章简介 过去20年间，全球经历了数次重大传染病疫情，传染病疫情对农产品国际贸易的经济影响逐渐受到学者的关注。除了劳动力短缺、生产停滞、消费疲软等直接渠道，传染病疫情是否会通过增加农产品贸易壁垒的间接途径影响农产品国际贸易？本文提出了一个理念性框架，认为当国内消费者对进口食品安全存在较大担忧时，监管当局可能绕过世卫和世贸组织的原则，采取针对疫情国农产品的单边进口限制措施。文章搜集整理了近二十年来急性呼吸系统综合征、甲型流感、埃博拉病毒和新型冠状肺炎四次主要非食源性传染病疫情期间的月度确诊病例数据，以及FDA的进口拒绝裁定数据，对此提供了经验证据。文章的主要贡献是：揭示了疫情暴发不仅可能对国际贸易产生直接冲击，而且会通过引发进口伙伴的贸易壁垒进一步抑制疫情国的农产品出口，从而凸显了关注贸易壁垒变化并在多边主义框架下协调各国贸易管制措施的重要性。 CWE文章摘要 Pandemic outbreaks disrupt agricultural trade. The possible strengthening of import barriers to products from countries at the epicenter of a pandemic by their trade partners could aggravate this situation. This paper examines the responses of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), import refusals, and subsequent trade impacts on the agricultural exports from the developing countries that were the epicenters of four pandemics in the past two decades. Using monthly data for the period 2002–2020, we find increased import refusals and amplified trade-impedingimpacts on agricultural exports during pandemic outbreaks. Increased import refusals and the amplification of the trade-impeding effect of import refusals were especially large when China was the epicenter. We further examine possible differences in these results across products and FDA inspection methods, and the main conclusions remain robust. This paper offers a better understanding of the economic outcomes of pandemic outbreaks and provides policy suggestions for China. CWE文章链接： https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12381 作者简介 茅锐 教授 | 博士生导师 茅锐博士是浙江大学中国农村发展研究院教授，“黄达-蒙代尔经济学奖”获得者，浙江省“万人计划”青年拔尖人才。目前担任中国农村发展研究院院长助理，浙大-IFPRI国际发展联合研究中心副主任，是浙江省“之江青年社科学者”、浙江大学“仲英青年学者”。